227. Kaiyuan Sun, Stefano Tempia, etc., SARS-CoV-2 transmission, persistence of immunity, and estimates of Omicron’s impact in South African population cohorts, 2022.05.31, https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/scitranslmed.abo7081 . Understanding the build-up of immunity with successive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants and the epidemiological conditions that favor rapidly expanding epidemics will help facilitate future pandemic control. We analyzed high-resolution infection and serology data from two longitudinal household cohorts in South Africa to reveal high cumulative infection rates and durable cross-protective immunity conferred by prior infection in the pre-Omicron era. Building on the history of past exposures to different SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination in the cohort most representative of South Africa’s high urbanization rate, we used mathematical models to explore the fitness advantage of the Omicron variant and its epidemic trajectory. Modeling suggests that the Omicron wave likely infected a large fraction (44 to 81%) of the population, leaving a complex landscape of population immunity primed and boosted with antigenically distinct variants. We project that future SARS-CoV-2 resurgences are likely under a range of scenarios of viral characteristics, population contacts, and residual cross-protection.

226. Allison Codi, Damon Luk, etc., Aggregating Human Judgment Probabilistic Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission, Burden, and Preventive Measures, 2022.07.25, https://academic.oup.com/ofid/article/9/8/ofac354/6649468?searchresult=1 . Aggregated human judgment forecasts for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) targets of public health importance are accurate, often outperforming computational models. Our work shows that aggregated human judgment forecasts for infectious agents are timely, accurate, and adaptable, and can be used as a tool to aid public health decision making during outbreaks.

225. Julia Smith, Alice Mũrage, etc., Integrating Gender-Based Analysis Plus into Policy Responses to COVID-19: Lived Experiences of Lockdown in British Columbia, Canada, 2022.08.31, https://academic.oup.com/sp/advance-article/doi/10.1093/sp/jxac024/6654672?searchresult=1#367655310 . Recognition of the differential effects of COVID-19 on women has led to calls for greater application of gender-based analysis within policy responses. Beyond pointing out where such policies are implemented, there is little analysis of the effects of efforts to integrate gender-based analysis into the COVID-19 response. Drawing on interviews informing a lived experienced approach to policy analysis, this article asks if, how, and to what effect gender-based analysis was implemented within social and economic policy responses during the initial lockdown, in British Columbia, Canada. It finds that, despite a rhetorical commitment to gender-based analysis, policies failed to address everyday inequalities.

224. Michiko Ueda, Robert Nordström, Tetsuya Matsubayashi, Suicide and mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, 2021.04.13, https://academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/article/44/3/541/6225085 . Compared to the 2017–19 period, the number of suicide deaths during the initial phase of the pandemic was lower than average but exceeded the past trend from July 2020. Female suicides, whose numbers increased by approximately 70% in October 2020 (incidence rate ratio: 1.695, 95% confidence interval: 1.558–1.843), were the main source of this increase. The largest increase was found among young women (less than 40 years of age). Our survey data indicated that the status of young women’s mental health has been deteriorating in recent months and that young female workers were more likely to have experienced a job or income loss than any other group, suggesting adverse economic conditions surrounding them. Continuous monitoring of mental health, particularly that of the most vulnerable populations identified in this study, and appropriate suicide prevention efforts are necessary during the COVID-19 pandemic.

223. Nina Mešl, Vesna Leskošek, etc., Social Work During COVID-19 in Slovenia: Absent, Invisible or Ignored?, 2022.08.11, https://academic.oup.com/bjsw/advance-article/doi/10.1093/bjsw/bcac149/6661190?searchresult=1 . The article discusses the results of a research study on social work during COVID-19 in Slovenia. Governmental measures to prevent the spread of the disease have increased the need for assistance to various groups of people but at the same time limited their access to social services. The main research question was to what extent social workers and social services were able to reorganise and adapt to crisis conditions and how this relates to the role of social work in society. Data were collected using mixed methods: online survey and interviews with social workers. Content analysis and selective coding, thematic analysis and univariate descriptive statistics were used for data analysis. The analysis shows that the ability of social workers to respond to the growing and changing needs of people during the pandemic depended on the context in which they worked. Social work was perceived as more effective and responsive in social services where professional autonomy was assured and valued and where horizontal relationships existed between staff and management. The study contributed to a better understanding of the context in which the pandemic occurred and identified some structural barriers to successful social work that are internationally comparable and relevant.

222. Cathal O’Donoghue, Denisa M Sologon, Iryna Kyzyma,, Novel welfare state responses in times of crises: the COVID-19 crisis versus the Great Recession, 2022.08.12, https://academic.oup.com/ser/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ser/mwac033/6662334?searchresult=1 . Using microsimulation tools, we explore the social policy responses to the Great Recession and the COVID-19 crisis, and their impact on preserving living standards in Ireland. During the Great Recession, the focus was on cost reduction. By contrast, during the COVID-19 crisis, the focus was on mitigating the impact on household incomes. In addition, an innovation in joint public and private responses emerged through social partnership. We find a stronger policy response during the COVID-19 crisis than the Great Recession. The COVID-19 crisis was more rapid, leaving more individuals out of work, thus family support was weaker. This was compensated by stronger private support through social partnership. Consequently, those with lower incomes had larger disposable incomes at the onset of the crisis; an effect that reduced with policy learning. We find increasing trust in public institutions during the COVID-19 crisis as opposed to a decline during the Great Recession.

221. Naimisha Movva, Mina Suh, etc., Respiratory Syncytial Virus During the COVID-19 Pandemic Compared to Historic Levels: A Retrospective Cohort Study of a Health System, 2022.08.15, https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/226/Supplement_2/S175/6665999?searchresult=1 . With the interruption of historical RSV epidemiologic trends and the emergence of interseasonal disease during COVID-19, continued monitoring of RSV is warranted across all settings as the changing RSV epidemiology could affect the distribution of health care resources and public health policy.

220. Jennifer Dan, Ricardo da Silva Antunes, etc., Observations and Perspectives on Adaptive Immunity to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), 2022.08.15, https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/75/Supplement_1/S24/6571103 . Since the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic began 2 years ago, the scientific community has swiftly worked to understand the transmission, pathogenesis, and immune response of this virus to implement public health policies and ultimately project an end to the pandemic. In this perspective, we present our work identifying SARS-CoV-2 epitopes to quantify T-cell responses and review how T cells may help protect against severe disease. We examine our prior studies which demonstrate durable humoral and cell-mediated memory in natural infection and vaccination. We discuss how SARS-CoV-2–specific T cells from either natural infection or vaccination can recognize emerging variants of concern, suggesting that the currently approved vaccines may be sufficient. We also discuss how pre-existing cross-reactive T cells promote rapid development of immune memory to SARS-CoV-2. We finally posit how identifying SARS-CoV-2 epitopes can help us develop a pan-coronavirus vaccine to prepare for future pandemics.

219. Amy C Sherman, Nadine Rouphael, etc., Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccine Trials (and Tribulations): How to Improve the Process of Clinical Trials in a Pandemic, 2022.04.18, https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/75/Supplement_1/S5/6569988 . Vaccine clinical trials have been essential to developing effective severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 vaccines. The challenges of supply chain disruptions, infection control, study designs, and participant factors that affect trial procedures are reviewed, with specific solutions to streamline the clinical trial process.

218. Sharifa Nasreen, Yossi Febriani, etc., Effectiveness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccines Against Hospitalization and Death in Canada: A Multiprovincial, Test-Negative Design Study, 2022.08.17, https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciac634/6668859?searchresult=1 . A major goal of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination is to prevent severe outcomes (hospitalizations and deaths). We estimated the effectiveness of messenger RNA (mRNA) and ChAdOx1 COVID-19 vaccines against severe outcomes in 4 Canadian provinces between December 2020 and September 2021.Two doses of mRNA or ChAdOx1 vaccine provide excellent protection against severe outcomes.

Chinese Society of International Law, in association with Chinese Institute of International Law at China Foreign Affairs University, and National Center for Foreign-related Rule of Law Research at China Foreign Affairs University
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